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For AGW, the Hypothesis is that Global Warming is caused by Man.
A significant positive impact of increased atmospheric CO2 is fertilization of increased plant growth (). Many studies indicate that plant growth improves with higher CO2; at the same time many studies show little effect, although some of these studies are considering the effect of CO2 along with the negative climatic effects predicted by GCMs. Research considering actual climate change in recent decades suggests a net positive effect (). Actual observations also suggest a net benefit: atmospheric carbon dioxide varies with a yearly cycle, likely mostly associated with uptake by the global biosphere, and the amplitude of this cycle shows a trend of a 4.6% increase per decade (; ).
Gore doesn’t say, because to do so would destroy his case, but here’s what science says: temperature changes precede carbon dioxide level changes by several hundred years, and temperature changes are caused by changes in solar intensity called the , not carbon dioxide. The Milankovitch Cycles, based on the earth’s changing position in relation to the sun, appear to be the ultimate drivers of climate over the past few million years.
AGW-H1 Global Warming, if it exists, is caused by Man.
By the way, this is the chart, based on ice core readings taken in Antarctica, that Gore uses in his film An Inconvenient Truth. Gore doesn’t try to explain why this roller coaster has occurred, since if changes in carbon dioxide levels were causing the cycle of glaciations and interglaciations, as Gore implies, then the logical question is what caused the changes in carbon dioxide levels?
The main results have by now already been presented. These large areas of the southern hemisphere land mass show little significant warming since 1880. To place this in context the results are re-plotted at a more conventional scale in Figure 5. This shows that from 1880 to 1973 (almost 100 years) the trend was effectively flat. In the mid 1970s, centred on 1976, something strange happened to Southern Hemisphere climate. A marked cool period, accompanied by higher rainfall, gave way to an era of marginally higher temperatures, perhaps 0.2˚C warmer than the previous era. This is what climatologists should be seeking to explain. I do not believe it has anything to do with mankind’s activities.
“97% of all scientists believe in Global Warming.”
Mild ordinary natural increases in the Earth's temperature have occurred during the past two to three centuries. These have resulted in some improvements in overall climate and also some changes in the landscape, such as a reduction in glacier lengths and increased vegetation in colder areas. Far greater changes have occurred during the time that all current species of animals and plants have been on the Earth. The relative population sizes of the species and their geographical distributions vary as they adapt to changing conditions.
Even these predictions remain significantly greater than empirical predictions of the effect of a doubling of CO2. Such predictions are typically of order 0.5° C (; ). These differences between GCM-based predictions and empirical predictions are mostly associated with treatment of feedback effects. The direct warming from an increased CO2 greenhouse effect could produce significant positive feedback where increased water vapor in the atmosphere adds to the greenhouse effect (recall that most of the existing greenhouse effect results from atmospheric H2O). Alternately, the increased water vapor could produce significant negative feedback from greater cloud cover reflecting more sunlight back to space. The interplay of feedbacks is not as well understood and not as well constrained by observation (; ). The IPCC preferred warming estimates in particular depend on positive feedback from water vapor, but amounts of atmospheric water vapor are high variable (unlike CO2 which is well mixed in the atmosphere), and only limited measurements of water vapor are available to test these predictions ().
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31. Christy, J. R. (1995) Climatic Change 31, 455-474.
Why did I spend that much time talking about Falsifiability? Because there has to be a way to make sure that we make our best ideas falsifiable. So, for this blog we have two hypotheses available for comparison, one for Intelligent Design (ID), and one for Global Warming (actually called Anthropogenic Global Warming, or AGW for short).
Global warming conspiracy theory - Wikipedia
Claims that extreme levels of warming will occur in the next century are based on the GCMs. Typically the models (particularly those reviewed in the IPCC reports) use some variety of assumptions regarding future changes in CO2 emissions to predict global temperature change between now and the year 2100. A doubling of pre-industrial CO2 levels is also often used as a baseline for comparison of different models.
Global Warming Petition Project
If our planet is near the top of its interglacial cycle, then we’d be getting — as part of a natural process — the rapid warming climatologists are so alarmed about. And, we can expect rapid cooling when the balance tips (the steep downward slope). To worry about global warming at this stage in our planet’s geological history seems silly from the geologist’s perspective.
Effects of global warming - Wikipedia
During the glacials, much of the northern hemisphere (and Antarctica, of course) is covered with ice two and three kilometres thick. Within our roughly two-million-year-old ice age, the glacials last about 80,000 years. The warmer interglacials, which make global civilization possible, last only 10,000-20,000 years. Our interglacial, the Holocene, began about 13,000 years ago, so we’re well past the half-way point in this cycle of warming and looking at a new glacial in the next few centuries or millennia. Warming is, therefore, from the geologist’s point of view, the least of our problems.
Anthropogenic Global Warming theory - Free Critical Thinking
Approaching this as a novice some months ago I decided the best and simplest way to do this was to use the average temperature for a station as the base. This uses all the data in the station normalisation procedure which I instinctively feel is correct. One consequence of this is to have a non-uniform base time and it was anticipated that this procedure may suppress differences while using a fixed base period may amplify them. There is no absolutely correct way around this. When my Central Australian post appeared on Climate Etc some weeks ago there was a disproportionate amount of interest in “flawed normalisation” as a scapegoat for what the data really showed.
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