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what is the procedure to be followed ?
There are many difficulties and subtleties in the application of these seemingly simple rules. Perhaps the most contentious is what is meant by 'without work'. Internationally this is accepted to be a person in the reference period, which is usually one week or one day before the survey question is posed, who did not work for pay or in-kind earning for even one hour.
Third, one objective of key informants is rapid feedback to local policy decisions. However, the broad problems raised skill shortage, unemployment etc. are not capable of being entirely dealt with at the local level. They are partly, if not mainly, problems of the macroeconomy. On the other hand Central Governments would be interested in the broad problems raised and, therein, lies another danger. That Central Governments would act on the basis of incomplete, partial and incorrect assessments. Further, local assessments are not likely to be randomly representative and the likelihood of considerable statistical bias could seriously mislead policy makers.
theory and the Harrod-Domar model to derive his conclusion
Currently the GDVT and the MoL employ MRF (manpower requirements forecasting) as its main methodology to assess training needs and those occupations that are worthy of future training. They recognize that this is unsatisfactory since MRF forecasts are unreliable as discussed in Chapter 1. In Vietnam the five most crucial problems were first that they depend on 2-3 year GDP growth forecasts into the future; second, they have no reliable starting configuration (base year) from which to forecast (i.e. even the shortages of occupations right now are not known, hence a forecast is like building castles on sand); third, technological change can only be guessed at; fourth, data availability at the provincial level is rudimentary and fifth, and perhaps most importantly, a whole host of local labor market signals (such as wages by occupation or skill, unemployment by occupation, feedback from enterprises and knowledge of graduate placement) are hardly incorporated in judgments. This does not mean, as many commentators have argued, that forecasting itself is of little or no value. It means simply that the forecasts need to be accompanied by more up-to-date labor market signals and, in the end, qualitative (but informed) judgement must be the deciding factor. Nevertheless, no system is entirely foolproof and errors and misallocation of resources will always occur. The goal is to resolve as many puzzles as possible and to reduce resource misallocation
When asked are there skills that are difficult to find on the market, only a third said this was so. When further asked what would be their first choice for these skills were, the eleven seeking new workers replied - repair and installation of equipment(1), welding (1), turning lathe (1), metal cutting (1), excavator operator(1), road technique (1), crane operator (1), metallurgy (1), hotel and restaurant service worker (1). It is worth commenting upon how useful this identification is for training needs analysis. First, it is not clear if the interviewers were clearly trained (and understood) to ask the speculative question about which skills are difficult to find on the market or did the enterprise simply reply about the workers they were going to hire - that only 11 replied while 17 said they were planning to hire more workers suggests that the question was understood. Second, the identification of the skills themselves. The question was open-ended and classified afterwards, hence more precision could be expected than in using a long list like ISCO for instance. However, the result that one respondent replied that the repair and installation of equipment is a skill missing on the market is rather too vague from which to develop a new course, especially as many of the key schools already have such courses.
What is the two - gap model in development economics?
When asked are there skills that are difficult to find on the market, only a third said this was so. When further asked what would be their first choice for these skills were, the eleven seeking new workers replied - repair and installation of equipment(1), welding (1), turning lathe (1), metal cutting (1), excavator operator(1), road technique (1), crane operator (1), metallurgy (1), hotel and restaurant service worker (1), not classified (2). Their second choices were manufacturing engineering (1), dynamic control engineering(2), cooling equipment (2), metal cutting and planing (1), industrial machine operator (1). It is worth commenting upon how useful this identification is for training needs analysis. First, it is not clear if the interviewers were clearly trained (and understood) to ask the speculative question about which skills are difficult to find on the market or did the enterprise simply reply about the workers they were going to hire - that only 11 replied while 17 said they were planning to hire more workers suggests that the question was understood. Second, the identification of the skills themselves. The question was open-ended and classified afterwards, hence more precision could be expected than in using a long list like ISCO for instance. However, the result that one respondent replied that the repair and installation of equipment is a skill missing on the market is rather too vague from which to develop a new course, especially as many of the Key Schools already have such courses.
Finally, questions were asked on whether the establishment would be willing to accept students from vocational training institutes to take on-the-job training - 52% replied that they would while 48% said no (Table 15, Appendix III). When asked what the reason for refusal was 25% said it was because they were too small and lacked enough equipment for training, 6.5% said it was because they really required highly skilled operators, 3% had no accommodation for students and 10% said that it would negatively affect on-going work. (Table 16)
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What is the two - gap model in development economics
Because it was suspected in advance that it would not be possible to trace all of the 30 students so chosen, a sample of 60 students from each Key School was selected. Tracing of the students was then carried out by staff of the Key Schools who had to travel to just about every corner of the country. Instructions were given to make major efforts to trace the first set of 30 students, going to the first address, a second address and even a third address if necessary. But, human nature being what it is, it is to be supposed that the 60 students who were eventually selected included many 'replacement' students when remoteness or the lack of a trace failed to produce the required student. This undoubtedly introduced bias into the sample as the 'more difficult to find students' would more than likely have different characteristics than the 'easier to find students'. There is no way of knowing how important the bias is.
Lewis Model of Unlimited Supply of Labor - Definition …
It is worth asking what are the utility of these responses? First, it is clear that in the future an attempt must be made to canvas opinion outside of the key school. Second, care must be taken to obtain "independent" opinions. It is natural for key school Directors to put the best light possible on their school and course activity. Third, the questionnaire involved all the senior staff of all the key schools in the inquiry, this mobilization and consultation is an excellent thing in itself. Unfortunately, no resources were available to bring the key school directors and senior staff together to discuss the results. This is certainly an activity that should be carried out in the future and on a regular basis. Fourth, the type of courses suggested may well be the ones required in the country at large. However, the samples in the tracer and establishment surveys were too small to verify these results. Fifth, this was the last set of results analyzed from all the surveys and it is clear that the most effective questions are ones that are objective in nature i.e. asking people what they have done is preferable to asking people what they think should be done. For instance, the salary earned and/or employment status of vocational school graduates discovered in the tracer survey is a, if not the most, powerful indicator of success of failure. This suggests that a key informant survey, although useful, cannot replace objective information obtained from a well-carried out tracer survey.
Lewis Model of Unlimited Supply of Labor: The Nobel Laureate, W
Similarly, respondents were also asked what courses should be eliminated in the future. The overwhelming reply was none or no response ((217 replies) which again illustrates the unity of purpose of key school informants. To be eliminated: civil carpentry (5), industrial machine operator (5 - all from the Viet-Xo technical Worker Key School and not one such skilled operator was found in the tracer study thereby providing some backup for this result), and car, motorbike and tractor repair (4).
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