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How to Protect Your Savings From the Coming Crisis

Research Associate Jörg Bibow investigates the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the (mal)functioning of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the German intellectual and historical traditions behind the euro policy regime and its central bank guardian. His analysis contrasts Keynes’s chartalist conception of money and central banking with the postwar traditions nourished by the Bundesbank and based on a fear of fiscal dominance. Keynes viewed the central bank as an instrument of the state, controlling the financial system and wider economy but ultimately an integral part of, and controlled by, the state. By contrast, the “Maastricht (EMU) regime” (of German design) positions the central bank as controlling the state. Essentially, Bibow observes, the national success of the Bundesbank model in pre-EMU times has left Europe stuck with a policy regime that is wholly unsuitable for the area as a whole. But regime reform is complicated by severely unbalanced competitiveness positions and debt overhang legacies. Refocusing the ECB on growth and price stability would have to be a part of any solution, as would refocusing area-wide fiscal policy on growth and investment.

According to Minsky, there are three possible credit regimes in an economy:

Financial economist Hyman P. Minsky was a Levy Institute distinguished scholar from 1990 until his death in 1996. He was responsible for establishing two of the Institute's ongoing research programs: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure, and The State of the U.S. and World Economies.

Hyman Minsky would not be impressed.

Here we enumerate the catalysts for the imminent bursting of the Chinese currency and credit bubble discussed herein and in our other work:

Hyman Minsky's research emphasized the central role of finance in modern economics at a time when finance was not important in most mainstream macroeconomic research. But in the 1980s, mainstream research began to explore the role of finance in firm and consumer behavior. This paper examines the extent to which this recent mainstream research captures Minsky's insights and whether it extends his work. I argue that recent work on micro foundations-the link between economic behavior and finance—complements Minsky's contributions and corresponding empirical research provides strong support for his argument that financial conditions affect expenditures. But large differences remain between Minsky and the mainstream paradigm, especially in the role played by the financial system in macroeconomic fluctuations. Furthermore, there is much in Minsky's Big Government—Big Bank policy framework that does not appear in recent mainstream work.

During the last decade of his life, Hyman P. Minsky drew on insights acquired from Joseph Schumpeter in an effort to explore the long-term development of capitalism. He believed such an exploration would underscore the economic implications of postwar financial-system innovations and could encourage a broad discussion regarding the appropriate structure of the US economy. This paper focuses on the theory of capitalist development that Minsky produced during that decade.

Minsky’s moment - Financial stability - The Economist

28/07/2016 · Financial stability Minsky’s moment

Gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) is a fiscal innovation. Innovation, for the purposes of this paper, is defined as a way of transforming a new concept into tangible processes, resources, and institutional mechanisms in which a benefit meets identified problems. GRB is a fiscal innovation in that it translates gender commitments into fiscal commitments by applying a “gender lens” to the identified processes, resources, and institutional mechanisms, and arrives at a desirable benefit incidence. The theoretical treatment of gender budgeting as a fiscal innovation is not incorporated, as the focus of this paper is broadly on the processes involved. GRB as an innovation has four specific components: knowledge processes and networking, institutional mechanisms, learning processes and building capacities, and public accountability and benefit incidence. The paper analyzes these four components of GRB in the context of India. The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy has been the pioneer of gender budgeting in India, and also played a significant role in institutionalizing gender budgeting within the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, in 2005. The Expert Committee Group on “Classification of Budgetary Transactions” makes recommendations on gender budgeting—Ashok Lahiri Committee recommendations—that will become part of the institutionalization process, integrating the analytical matrices of fiscal data through a gender lens and also the institutional innovations for GRB. Revisiting the 2004 Lahiri recommendations and revamping the process of GRB in India is inevitable, at both ex ante and ex post levels.

The aim of this paper is to develop a structural explanation of the subprime mortgage crisis, grounded on the combination of two apparently incompatible financial theories: the financial instability hypothesis by Hyman P. Minsky and the theory of capital market inflation by Jan Toporowski. Our thesis is that, once the evolution of the financial market is taken into account, the financial Keynesianism of Minsky is still a valid framework to understand the events leading to the crisis.

Levy Economics Institute | Hyman Minsky
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His two seminal books were Stabilizing an Unstable Economy ..

This essay contrasts the production function approach to Kaldor's model of increasing returns which are demand-determined. In particular, the essay analyzes Kaldor's three major empirical "laws", which were adopted by later economists, and the criticisms of these three "laws" by economists who used the Cobb-Douglas production function as a basis of analysis. In conclusion, the essay finds that econometrics has provided an inadequate basis upon which to choose between this aggregate production function and Kaldor's model of growth.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis - YouTube

Based on an analysis of industry by region data the author finds little evidence that U.S. unions have been a significant factor in the decision of U.S. firms to produce abroad. Additional evidence suggests that U.S. foreign production may have had a negligible effect on the domestic unionization rate. Corresponding with previous research, the results do indicate that comparative advantage, monopoly power, and foreign tariffs are important determinants of U.S. foreign production.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman P

The purpose of this paper is to outline a consistent microeconomic theory of the firm based on the concept of monopoly power. It builds on the heritage of Post Keynesian authors, Robinson, Kaldor, and Kalecki, but literally extends the theory in several directions. First, monopoly power is defined formally in terms of substitution. In this way, monopoly power is recognized as a fundamental characteristic of a firm which in turn affects other aspects of its behavior. Also in this theory, the relationships between monopoly power, demand elasticities, markups, total profits, and the distribution of profits, are traced systematically. Before turning to the theory it is important to point out that I have benefited as much from the mistakes of my predecessors as from their genuine insights. Kriesler (1987), for example, noted that Kalecki created considerable confusion by failing to clearly distinguish between the degree of monopoly and the markup. This problem is resolved here by defining monopoly power in terms of substitution and identifying it as one of several determinants of the markup. It is always easier to recognize a problem like this one and propose a solution when someone else has stumbled across it first.

28/03/2014 · The Financial Instability Hypothesis

This paper has investigated the relationship between poverty and family type, as reflected in the marital status and gender of the head of the family number of factors have been identified as important determinants of poverty for all family types: education and work experience of family members, race, disability, and unemployment of the family head, geographical location, size and composition of the family.

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